The source for NFL, NBA and college football handicapping analysis. Research trends in Against the Spread (ATS) data, Over/Under performance and much, much more.
Welcome to the Sunday Strategy Blog
Sunday Strategy - NBA & NFL Picks ATS and O/U

Sunday, December 28, 2008

BCS Betting Preview

We're just about through a plethora of Bowl Games that no one cares about. (Unless you were captivated by the MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl). Now it is time for the BCS Bowls!


Penn State Nittany Lions at USC Trojans

Spread: Trojans favored by 8.5
Over/Under: 45


The first game on the schedule is a traditional Big Ten - Pac Ten matchup (OK, so what if Penn St. has only been in the Big Ten since Joe Paterno reached mandatory retirement age.... work with me here).

Both teams were one slip-up from playing in the National Championship game. Penn St lost on a last second field goal to Iowa. USC got upset at Oregon St. early in the season.

That being said, each team only has one real quality win on the schedule... and they both came against Ohio St. USC destroyed Ohio St. 35 - 3 in early September (and the game wasn't that close) While Penn St. beat the Buckeyes in a hard fought matchup two months ago.

If we use Ohio St as a measuring stick, reason dictates that USC is the better team here. They were clearly the better team against Ohio St and had the advantage in every aspect of the game. Meanwhile, the Penn St - Ohio St. game could have went either way.

Expect this to be another embarrassing loss for the Big Ten in a Bowl Game. USC should win by at least two TDs and cover.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Nittany Lions - Trojans analysis




Cincinnati Bearcats at Virginia Tech Hokies

Spread: Bearcats favored by 2.5
Over/Under: 41.5


OK, this is a BCS Bowl Game in name only. These two teams probably wouldn't have winning records in the Big 12... but they did win their respective divisions and rules are rules.

I honestly don't have too much to say about this game. The Big East has looked good so far this Bowl season... so let's assume that the trend continues and the Bearcats cover. But that's just a guess.... I have no idea how this game is going to turn out.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Bearcats - Hokies analysis




Utah Utes at Alabama Crimson Tide

Spread: Crimson Tide favored by 10
Over/Under: 46


Alabama was the #1 team in the country until the final week of the season when they played Florida tough. Utah hasn't lost all year. They have two quality wins coming late in the season.. beating TCU by a point and blowing out BYU in their last game.

But let's not get too cute here. Utah is a nice story. They had a great season and should be proud of their accomplishment. They deserve to be in this BCS game.

Alabama, on the other hand, is a legitimate top team. They went 12-1 in the SEC and their defense gave up 10 points or less in more than half of those games.

I just don't see Utah scoring points on Alabama. This game reminds me of the Sugar Bowl last season when an undefeated Hawaii was matched up against SEC runner-up Georgia. Many people picked the feel-good Rainbows to get an upset win. But what happened? Georgia blew them out 41-0.

Expect more of the same here. Alabama will win in a blowout and will cover the spread.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Utes - Crimson Tide analysis




Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas Longhorns

Spread: Longhorns favored by 8
Over/Under: 53


The team everyone loves to hate - the Ohio State Buckeyes - are back in a BCS Bowl game. They are matched up against a Texas team that had a legitimate claim to the National Championship game.

Texas' lone loss of the season came in an instant-classic against Texas Tech. Ohio St. lost to two BCS bound teams - USC and Penn St.

This is a tough game for me to call. I am a life long Ohio St. fan and think they received too much crap for the way their season ended the last two years. I admit that the looked like shit in those last two games and were out-coached.... but it happens to the best teams in the country.

That being said, I've watched this team play many times this year and I'm afraid to say they are not a great team. They don't have that special something that past Buckeyes teams did.

Texas, on the other hand, has looked great all season. They are arguably the best team in the country and barely - barely - dropped one game in an extremely hostile environment.

Texas will win this game by 10. Not because Ohio St chokes again; Texas is just a better team this year.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Buckeyes - Longhorns analysis



Check back soon for analysis on The National Championship game between Florida and Oklahoma.

0 comments: