Super Bowl XLIII Gambling Analysis

Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals Spread: Steelers favored by 7 Over/Under: 46.5

Super Bowl XLIII is finally here and the Pittsburgh Steelers are still a 7 point favorite. The line hasn't moved much at all since it opened up nearly two weeks ago.

So, who to bet. I have to be a bit honest with, this game has me perplexed.

On the one hand, I love the Steelers defense. They are a once-a-decade type of defense and can hold their own with the '00 Ravens and, even, the '85 Bears. History suggests that the dominant defensive team always ends up winning in the Super Bowl.

But, on the other hand, I LOVE the Ken Wisenhunt factor. He was the Offensive Coordinator in Pittsburgh before taking over as head coach in Arizona 2 years ago. he knows everything about the Steelers offense. He helped Big Ben develop into an NFL QB. You think he doesn't know what his weaknesses are? One of my biggest gambling wins ever was when John Gruden and the Bucs defeated the Raiders a few years ago. I couldn't get over the fact that John Gruden knew everything there was to know about the Raiders having coached them the year before. The Super Bowl came and it was a blow out. I won big. The situation here is very similar.

So now that I have these conflicting emotions, I have to look to other factors. Of course you can talk about how great Larry Fitzgerald is, but you can also say the same about more than a few players on the Steelers defense. I can also talk about the history of the black-and-gold but, honestly, what Bradshaw and Co. did in the 70's will mean nothing come Sunday.

That leaves the one big issue that I just can't overlook. The Hines Ward injury. All indicators are that he will be close to 75% on Sunday. he will suit up and will likely start, but he simply can't be a factor. And I love Hines Ward. The guy is a player in every sense of the word and is the heart and soul of the Pittsburgh offense. If he doesn't play a big role, then Nate Washington and Linus let-me-drop-a-sure-touchdown-and-pretend-to-be-hurt-so-people-fell-bad Sweed will have to step up. Do you want to rely on either one of these guys for a Super Bowl title? Me neither.

Take the Cardinals and the 7 points. They may not win, but Wisenhunt knows the Pittsburgh offense so well that they'll have to keep it close.


For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Steelers - Cardinals analysis

Super Bowl Box Pool Calculator

Everyone has entered the Super Bowl Box pool before.

Put you money down and write your name in one of 100 boxes. Then, right before kickoff, someone rolls the die and you get numbers assigned to to your box.

If the final digit of the final score matches your box, you win. For example, the Giants beat the Patriots 17 - 14 in Super Bowl XLII. Whoever had the "Giants 7 - Patriots 4" Box - wins. It's that simple.

We've taken every NFL game from the last decade and figured out how the final score would fit into the Super Bowl box pool. The percentage of games that fall into the appropriate box are listed below.

		Team A
		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
T e a m B	0	2.18	1.47	0.69	3.56	2.26	0.65	1.42	3.67	0.96	0.57
	1	1.47	0.59	0.29	1.09	2.58	0.21	0.71	1.72	1.24	0.67
	2	0.69	0.29	0.04	0.46	0.38	0.27	0.27	0.44	0.13	0.42
	3	3.56	1.09	0.46	1.47	1.51	0.44	1.74	2.07	0.65	0.80
	4	2.26	2.58	0.38	1.51	1.63	0.57	0.84	3.50	0.78	0.57
	5	0.65	0.21	0.27	0.44	0.57	0.13	0.29	0.78	0.54	0.10
	6	1.42	0.71	0.27	1.74	0.84	0.29	0.46	1.17	0.46	0.50
	7	3.67	1.72	0.44	2.07	3.50	0.78	1.17	2.18	0.90	0.82
	8	0.96	1.24	0.13	0.65	0.78	0.54	0.46	0.90	0.38	0.29
	9	0.57	0.67	0.42	0.80	0.57	0.10	0.50	0.82	0.29	0.04

Geno's Super Bowl Video Pick

Sure, you can be boring and just bet the game. But what fun is that? This is the Super Bowl. You get bet the coin toss, the length of the national anthem and even the first TD celebration. Geno has your picks on all of these. Oh yeah, he talks about the actual game too.

Geno's Bye Week Special

You think Geno just sits down in a chair each week, starts talking and goes 70% ATS?

No my friend, this is hard work. No one can be this naturally good looking AND funny at the same time. Check out the behind-the-scenes outtakes from all of Geno's video picks this season.

Super Bowl XLIII - Opening Lines

Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals Spread: Steelers favored by 7 Over/Under: 46.5

Super Bowl XLIII is all set. The Pittsburgh Steelers - who will be making a record 7th Super Bowl appearance - will face off against the Arizona Cardinals. This is the first Super Bowl appearance for the cardinals.

The early Vegas lines are in and the Steelers are listed as a 7 point favorite. Some books have it at 6.5. My gut says that is a bit high and it will settle to the 6 or 6.5 range by mid week.

The initial Over/Under line is set at 46.5 - a bit high given the Steelers record setting defense. They may come down a point as well as the week progresses.

We'll get into the analysis closer to game time. Just for fun, here is the outcome of the most recent Super Bowls. The favorite has won 5 out of the last 8 games - but has only covered in 3 of those games. The Under has hit in the last 4 Super Bowls.







For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Steelers - Cardinals analysis